The central bank market or a negative interest rate double down the biggest beneficiaries
Chinese officially entered the era of negative interest rates the central bank
On Friday the central bank announced that the central bank lowered the benchmark interest rate of RMB deposits in financial institutions and financial institutions RMB deposit reserve ratio. Reporter survey found that after the abolition of the interest rate floating ceiling, a lot of bank interest rates to 0.3%, lower than the benchmark interest rate of 0.35%. While the term deposit, a temporary increase in interest rates.
Bank deposit rates fell to a record low, the deposit move phenomenon will be staged again. Buy a house? Buy stocks? Or choose financial products? Expert analysis, the history of the negative interest rates on the stock market is mainly short-term stimulus, but the market is more positive impact.
Guangzhou Daily reporter Li Jingxuan, Zhang Zhongan, Yang Xin /
The one-year deposit interest rate up to 2.025%
The Central Bank of Shuangjiang, one-year benchmark lending rate down by a quarter of a percentage point to 4.35%; one year time deposit datum interest rate cut by a quarter of a percentage point to 1.5%; other the level of interest rates adjusted accordingly. In addition to cut financial institutions RMB deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points. The central bank also said: the commercial banks and rural cooperative financial institutions, and so no longer set up the deposit rate floating ceiling.
Since November 22, 2014, the central bank has conducted the sixth cut interest rates, the one-year benchmark deposit interest rates declined from 3% to 1.5%, less than 11 months deposit interest rate cut tragically. Even if the deposit interest rate ceiling full liberalization, but does not mean that the bank can fully self regulate the deposit rate, the central bank is still subject to the constraints and guidance. According to the performance of the previous several times to cut interest rates, the bank deposit interest rates are expected to rise after the rate of bank deposit interest rates will be mostly between 20%~45%, which, the large and medium-sized banks broke surface will be between 20%~30%, only a small number of small banks may be between 40%~50%.
Late last Friday central banks also double down, the deposit interest rate adjustment. Reporter survey found that the abolition of the interest rate floating ceiling, the number of banks' current interest rate of 0.3%, lower than the benchmark interest rate of 0.35%. And on the basis of the current data, Beijing bank and Bank of Ningbo are the highest, 2.025%, is the basis of the central bank's benchmark.
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, agricultural bank, Bank of China and other several large state-owned bank's latest interest rate was 1.95%, 1.3 times the benchmark interest rate, and the previous floating degree is basically the same; joint-stock banks short-term deposit rates the counter ultra large state-owned banks, including GF, CITIC Bank, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, Minsheng, China, Bohai bank, joint-stock banks one-year deposit interest rate is mostly for 2%; in City Commercial Bank, part of the bank not yet hung out price adjustment.
Hengfeng Bank Institute executive dean, Renmin University of China Chong Finance Research Institute guest researcher Dong ximiao believes that the ceiling on deposit interest rates liberalization does not mean deposit interest rate will be so immediately soared. First of all, China is now on the overall liquidity is ample, the interest rate does not have the conditions to go quickly, and secondly, the central bank will take the window guidance, self regulatory mechanism, the deposit interest rate for a reasonable guide.
“ interest rate market does not mean that the interest rate is determined by the market, the future of the central bank's benchmark interest rate is still a great ability to control. Our country's loan interest rate has been fully liberalized interest rates, but after the release of the loan interest rate, the central bank is still able to adjust the benchmark interest rate to affect bank loan interest rates, because commercial banks gradually adapt to the process of independent pricing, the benchmark interest rate is still appropriate to the central bank. This also means that after the deposit interest rate liberalization, the central bank can continue to adjust the deposit benchmark interest rate to affect the level of bank deposit interest rates. ” Jiang Chao, chief macroeconomic analyst at Haitong Securities believes that the future of the new benchmark interest rate will occur, in particular, is important to repurchase rate.
The stock market:
Negative interest rates and stock market correlation is not high:
“ we are considering whether opening, but if you can tune a little better. ” the last Friday suddenly announced that the central bank &ldquo, Guangzhou; &rdquo flat; private sources. It is understood, many investors believe that the central bank has a substantial positive double down on the stock market, and even opening plan. However, reporters from the historical data found that the overall negative interest rates on the stock market is not very high, and the positive impact is often reflected in the negative interest rate era.
According to the latest data from the central bank, as of the end of 9, the financial institutions RMB deposits of 133.73 yuan, of which, household deposits of 54.17 yuan, 40.48 yuan of non financial corporate deposits.
In the minds of many investors, if sustained negative interest rates makes saving move, part of the funds moved to the stock market, maybe in the future market is worth looking forward to. “ this logic is set up, the existence of the money is the depreciation of the bank, the need to find a way out, at least to achieve preservation. This will have a portion of the money into the stock market, so as to promote the stock index rose. ” the private placement.
