The "double down" under the market decide on what path to follow?

News source: Central Broadcasting Network
According to the voice of the economy, the world financial reports, according to the latest National Bureau of statistics released in September 70 cities nationwide housing sales price data, domestic prices continue to pick up momentum. Especially the Guangzhou Shenzhen four first-tier cities, housing prices rose significantly and continued upside. However, regardless of the new commercial housing or second-hand housing, prices rose more than a drop. In addition, the three line city house prices continue to decline. In the context of the central bank cut interest rates fall, the property market trend is concerned.
September property market as a whole to pick up
We combed found that the September price data has two major characteristics. The first feature is the overall continued to pick up. From the price range, 70 large and medium cities in the new commercial housing and second-hand housing prices rose an average of 1.9% and 1.7%, respectively, compared with August.
The property market is “ the golden nine silvers ten ” ". Then, from the point of view of data in September, this warming is because of & ldquo; the golden nine silvers ten & rdquo; boost, or because stabilization and recovery of the property market itself?? State Department counselor researcher Yao Jingyuan believes it is the latter.
Yao Jingyuan: now the market rebounded slightly, not only “ ten silver ” such a factor. Mainly because of the real estate from the beginning of January last year, a negative growth. We just released the real estate data, 70 large and medium-sized cities nationwide, 39 is rising, so it should be real estate all the way down the state now began to stabilize.
Differentiation: first tier cities all up, three line city all down
Another feature is that the property market differentiation is still increasing. Four first tier cities prices are rising, and the increase is relatively large; second tier cities is up and down; three line city of new commodity housing prices are still falling.
First look at the first tier cities. Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, the chain rose about 1%, an increase of not to reach two digits. Except Shenzhen, the chain rose as high as 4%, an increase of more than 37.6%, close to four. Shanghai E-House Real Estate Institute Vice President Yang Hongxu “ very rare ” to describe the skyrocketing housing prices in Shenzhen.
Yang Hongxu: Shenzhen's soaring housing prices in the history of the Chinese property market is a very rare phenomenon. As for the reasons, including the stock market hot for Shenzhen such a capital market, including the national policy of innovation and entrepreneurship good, including the Guangdong Free Trade Zone in Shenzhen landing, Shenzhen has a concentrated outbreak in the demand level.
Second tier cities in the real price range is generally not too obvious, Zhengzhou, capital of central cities rose, and the northeast of Shenyang, Dalian, Changchun and other city, continue to decline. Three or four line of the city fell more than a year, fell more than the same period. Dandong, Zhanjiang and other cities fell by more than 7%. Centaline chief analyst Zhang Dawei believes that from the perspective of supply and demand, the decline in housing prices is inevitable, and may continue for some time.
Zhang Dawei: we are now in the real estate market, mainly to see the index or the net inflow of population. Like these cities in the northeast, it is now possible in the process of economic restructuring, the current population may be in a state of being close to 0. Prices down is a natural, and may continue for some time.
The Central Bank of double property or greet warm winter
And for the national property market trend, there is still a factor to continue to be optimistic, such as the central bank to cut interest rates. From yesterday, the central bank cut the benchmark interest rate of RMB loans and deposits of financial institutions 0.25 percentage points. Zhang Dawei believes that the flow of the release of quasi cut interest rates to stimulate the property market transactions.
Dawei: for real estate, the policy is certainly good, will certainly bring buyers to reduce pressure on the certain degree of purchase, for the opening of business can also be eased some of the funds cost pressures, stimulate the future market in 11, December, there will be a relatively mild winter. But after so many of the window period of consumption, the current demand for the possibility of a very small outbreak.
Of course, in the eyes of some viewpoints, RRR cut interest rates on the property market is not a good: two possible exacerbate devaluation of the yuan is expected, leading to foreign reflux, selling real estate and other renminbi assets. But Yang Hongxu predicts that this effect is not significant.
Yang Hongxu: after we cut interest rates again, may make the RMB has a further devaluation of the pressure, but I think the impact on the property market is very small. This is mainly because of the amount of foreign capital in the property market is very small, even if some of the foreign investment from the property market, it will not affect the nature of China's property market.
The views of a number of experts are relatively consistent, the future of the property market will remain stable, volatility will tend to moderate. Data also have support: the chain of view, September 70 large and medium cities in the new housing and second-hand housing prices rose 0.1 and 0.2 percentage points. In addition, Shenzhen September new home transaction 4060 sets, a slight increase of 0.1%, the average price of second-hand housing fell by 1.6%, the Shenzhen property market has peaked, the price may be inevitable correction.